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I’ve been toying with the idea of a new website, (because obviously what I need to do is own more domains and produce more content…)

Anyway, what do you think of the following? It’s something I’ve been refining since the start of the year, so that every Sunday I (personally) get an email focused on what’s happened, and what happens next.

I’ve been refining a (looooong) prompt to find interesting news stories, press releases, viral posts, etc. that might suggest things are changing culturally, socially, politically, and economically. I’ve asked for the inclusion of something from each continent over the 10 news stories — and, of course, not to be too US-focused.

Is this something you’d subscribe to? 🤔

(again, this wouldn’t be a Thought Shrapnel thing)

1. US–Israeli strikes on Iran and Khamenei’s death

US and Israeli forces have launched large air and missile strikes against targets in Iran, with reports of explosions in Tehran and other cities and widespread fear inside the country. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been reported killed, with US President Donald Trump publicly confirming his death and analysts quickly turning to the question of succession and the balance of power among Iranian elites. Iran has responded with missile attacks on Israel and multiple Gulf states, killing at least one person in Abu Dhabi and shaking cities that normally promote an image of safety and stability.

What happens next?
Key watchpoints include the internal succession process in Iran, potential escalation through proxies across the region, and the reaction of energy and shipping markets to the risk of prolonged instability around the Gulf.

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2. Global reaction and Brazil’s condemnation of the strikes

Brazil’s government has condemned the US–Israeli strikes on Iran, voicing “grave concern” and distancing itself from Washington’s approach to the crisis. Reactions from governments worldwide show a mix of criticism, appeals for restraint, and guarded support, revealing fractures in traditional alliances and a more fragmented diplomatic field. Several states that backed sanctions on Russia are clearly less willing to endorse this round of military action, signalling fatigue with sanctions‑plus‑strikes as a default Western toolkit.

What happens next?
Brazil and other large democracies in the Global South are likely to continue presenting themselves as independent actors and potential mediators, which complicates efforts by Washington and its allies to portray responses to Iran as a simple binary choice.

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3. Bolivia’s crashed cash plane and burned banknotes

A Bolivian Air Force Hercules carrying new central‑bank banknotes crashed on a busy avenue in El Alto, killing around 20 people and injuring dozens, with cash scattered across the crash site. Residents rushed to collect the notes and clashed with security forces, who then burned large quantities of recovered money on site, arguing that it was not yet legal tender and that possession would be illegal. The scenes, captured and shared widely, have touched a nerve in a city already feeling the effects of fuel subsidy cuts and price rises.

What happens next?
The combination of mass casualties and the spectacle of the state incinerating money in front of poor residents is likely to become a powerful reference point in Bolivian politics, feeding anger about inequality, austerity, and institutional trust.

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4. Vietnam’s AI law takes effect

Vietnam’s Law on Artificial Intelligence comes into force on 1 March 2026, making it the first country in Southeast Asia with a detailed AI statute covering developers, deployers, and users. The law requires clear labelling of AI‑generated content, notification when people interact with AI rather than humans, and stricter controls for high‑risk applications in areas such as health, finance, and security. It is tied to an industrial strategy that includes building national AI computing capacity, strengthening Vietnamese‑language data resources, and encouraging domestic AI firms.

What happens next?
Global platforms and AI companies face a choice between adapting products to meet Vietnam’s standards and potentially drawing on them elsewhere, or limiting services in a market that is positioning itself as a digital hub in the region.

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5. Zimbabwe bans exports of raw minerals and lithium concentrates

Zimbabwe has ordered an immediate halt to exports of all unprocessed minerals and lithium concentrates, including consignments already in transit, citing malpractice and a need to capture more value at home. The ban affects foreign miners and downstream processors who rely on Zimbabwean ore for global battery and electronics supply chains. It aligns with a broader push across several African states to renegotiate their place in extractive industries and to reduce dependence on external financing.

What happens next?
Mining companies must weigh investment in local processing against sourcing from other countries, and other resource‑rich governments may view Zimbabwe’s stance as a precedent, reshaping bargaining power in critical mineral markets.

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6. Africa CDC challenges pathogen‑data conditions in US health deals

Africa CDC Director Jean Kaseya has raised “major concerns” over proposed US health‑security agreements that require rapid sharing of pathogen samples and genomic data as a condition for funding. Zimbabwe has already pulled out of talks on a large deal, and Zambia has pushed back over equity and sovereignty issues, arguing that past arrangements have seen data and samples leave the continent without fair access to resulting products. The dispute comes as African governments seek more voice in global health governance after the Covid‑19 experience.

What happens next?
Future pandemic treaties and bilateral agreements are likely to feature much tougher African demands on benefit sharing, local manufacturing, and data governance, which may slow negotiations but could rebalance long‑standing patterns of extraction.

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7. EU social fund can help pay for access to abortion

The European Commission has clarified that EU member states may use money from the European Social Fund Plus to finance access to safe abortion, including cross‑border care for people from countries with tighter laws. The clarification does not impose new obligations on governments but gives legal and financial cover to those that decide to support such services. It lands in a context where abortion access within the EU is diverging, with some states restricting and others expanding rights.

What happens next?
Expect legal and political disputes about whether EU‑level money is being used to bypass national restrictions, and debates about how far EU social and cohesion tools should reach into sensitive areas of bio‑politics.

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8. Draft EU–India trade deal with MFN clause and digital provisions

A draft text of the EU–India trade agreement shows plans for each side to grant the other Most Favoured Nation treatment for five years after entry into force, limiting scope to offer better terms to other large partners. The draft also includes provisions on digital trade, including data, online services, and rules for tech firms, set against the backdrop of broader EU moves on AI and platform regulation. For India, the deal is part of a diversification effort away from China and towards multiple partners.

What happens next?
If ratified on current lines, the agreement will influence India’s choices on data governance and digital regulation and will set a reference point for trade talks between advanced economies and large emerging markets that seek more autonomy.

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9. Canada’s Bill C‑16 and changing online‑harms rules

Analysis from regulatory commentators notes that Canada’s Bill C‑16 broadens obligations from telecoms and ISPs to a wider group of “internet services”, including large platforms and infrastructure providers. The bill introduces new criminal offences around coercive control and updates non‑consensual intimate image provisions to include deepfakes and other AI‑generated content. Civil liberties organisations warn about possible conflicts with Canada’s Charter of Rights and Freedoms, while groups working on gender‑based violence argue that stronger tools are overdue.

What happens next?
Once passed, the law is expected to face court challenges and will force platforms to adapt moderation, evidence, and transparency practices, feeding into a larger pattern of diverging national approaches to online harms.

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10. Fiji and Tuvalu to host pre‑COP31 climate meetings

The Pacific Islands Forum has announced that Fiji and Tuvalu will host key meetings in the run‑up to COP31, which will take place in Australia in 2026. Fiji will host the pre‑COP gathering and Tuvalu will host a dedicated leaders’ segment, giving some of the most climate‑vulnerable states greater influence over agenda setting. Forum leaders present this as a chance to centre Pacific priorities such as loss and damage, adaptation finance, and fossil‑fuel phase‑out.

What happens next?
With pre‑COP and COP activity concentrated in and around the Pacific, larger emitters face stronger diplomatic pressure from small island states on issues such as fossil‑fuel production, climate‑related migration, and debt relief linked to resilience.

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Image: César Ardilla