Is Europe's climate going to become like North America's?
The map above plots European cities of the same latitude onto a map of North America. If you look closely, you’ll notice something interesting: either European cities should be much colder, or North American cities should be much warmer.
The reason for this is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), part of which we know as the ‘Gulf Stream’. As this carries warm water north, it eventually reaches polar regions where the water cools, becomes denser, and sinks—driving the return flow that completes the AMOC circulation.
The problem is that the AMOC is becoming weaker and, if it collapses entirely, would have catastrophic consequences for the UK, Europe, and beyond.
A potential collapse of AMOC could trigger a modern-day ice age, with winter temperatures across Northern Europe plummeting to new cold extremes, bringing far more snow and ice. The AMOC has collapsed in the past - notably before the last Ice Age that ended about 12,000 years ago.
“It is a direct threat to our national resilience and security,” Iceland Climate Minister Johann Pall Johannsson said by email. “(This) is the first time a specific climate-related phenomenon has been formally brought before the National Security Council as a potential existential threat.”
Elevation of the issue means Iceland’s ministries will be on alert and coordinating a response, Johannsson said. The government is assessing what further research and policies are needed, with work underway on a disaster preparedness policy.
Risks being evaluated span a range of areas, from energy and food security to infrastructure and international transportation.
An Atlantic current collapse could have consequences far beyond Northern Europe. It could potentially destabilize longtime rainfall patterns relied upon by subsistence farmers across Africa, India and South America, according to scientists.
[…]
Britain said it was following scientific reports that suggested an abrupt collapse was unlikely during this century, while directing more than 81 million pounds into research to understand when the Earth’s climate systems might be pushed to a point of no return.
“The science is evolving quite rapidly and time is running out to do anything about it because the tipping point may well be quite close,” said oceanographer and climatologist Stefan Rahmstorf from Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
Iceland is not taking any chances, as the pace of warming speeds up and greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise.
“Sea ice could affect marine transport; extreme weather could severely affect our capabilities to maintain any agriculture and fisheries, which are central to our economy and food systems,” Johannsson said.
“We cannot afford to wait for definitive, long-term research before acting.”
Source: Reuters
Image: Vivid Maps